Pierre Le Roy: The skippers in the Vendée Arctique are going to have to cope with continued uncertainty

When you talk to a meteo expert like Pierre Le Roy, who knows his weather and sailing equally well, what comes over is how challenging this course to the Arctic Circle is going to be.

The skippers will be dealing with constant uncertainty, with many different meteorological obstacles and just how flexible, nimble and smart they are in responding to them will play a big part in how their race unfolds.

Le Roy, formerly a meteorologist with Météo-France who won the Mini Transat in 2021 and is now aiming to compete in the next Vendée Globe, has been advising two of the skippers in the Vendée Arctique – Ambrogio Beccaria on Allagrande MAPEI and Nico d’Estais on Café Joyeux.

Looking at the race overall, he set out the nature of this unique challenge. “It’s a particular race because you start in lighter conditions at this time of year in the Bay of Biscay. But rapidly you get caught in the succession of lows in the northern Atlantic,”he explained. 

“What is interesting is that when you have to cross one, two or three lows, the degree of certainty you have decreases rapidly after the first one. So you cannot have a clear view, a clear path in your mind. You have to adapt after the first system and, because of that, it makes the race a bit more interesting and a bit more stressful for the skippers because right now, they don’t know how strong the winds will be when they get around Iceland. 

“Of course this is not the case in a regular transat,”he added, “because they usually know they are going to have to deal with one or two lows, and then they will be in the Trade Winds, and there is going to be a chance to rest. In this race they cannot have that mentality – there is going to be uncertainty the whole time with some possibly strong winds.”

One irony about this course into the north Atlantic is that the skippers may encounter light winds at their furthest point north, in the waters around Iceland, where they will have to select their moment to cross the Arctic Circle before turning back south. Le Roy says that is because they might be sailing close to the centre of a low pressure system that is likely to be the dominant feature. 

“But it won’t be – or probably won’t be – light conditions overall up there,” he said. “Because there will be some waves, and dealing with the centre of the low, with light winds and some waves, is tricky because it is difficult to make the boats make headway in those kinds of conditions.” 

The Vendée Arctique is also unique in the fact that, in one respect, the course is left open to the skippers themselves. They can cross the Arctic Circle where they like. However, Le Roy thinks it is unlikely any of them will try to do this to the west of Iceland. That’s because the distance to sail is further and because the winds tend to channel between Greenland and Iceland, meaning one way might be quick but coming back the other way might be slow.

“It means if you want to go there, you need a windshift that fits with your timing going into this area,”he said. “The conditions to go there, and to be faster than going to the east, are possible but it is very unlikely.”

That leaves a point to the east of Iceland and, if the fleet is sailing in a loose group, Le Roy expects to see them all aim for roughly the same turning point: “I know the mentality, and with a group, I think they won’t gamble on winning the race based on the point of crossing the Arctic Circle in a different area. I think they will stick to winning the race on speed and on strategy apart from this particular point.”

The exact point they go for may well depend on the likelihood of being upwind on the way south, which is more of a risk the further east they cross the Circle. “So I think, if there is any kind of uncertainty about the weather going south, they might go further west – but still east of Iceland – just to keep their options open on the way down,”summarised Le Roy.

Looking at the first few days, Le Roy sees a lowspeed start to the third edition of this qualifier for the 2028 Vendée Globe, with the skippers using thermal breeze along the Vendée coast in the early stages. They will then have a lightwind ridge to cross, and then the first weather front as the pattern of continuous change starts to assert itself on the way to the southwest corner of Ireland. 

“The skippers are going to have to pay particular attention very carefully to choose the right moment to tack for each phenomenon – the ridge or the fronts – and thinking further ahead about where they want to be for the next phenomenon. We are going to see some small timing differences and I think we will already see, after two days, which boat and which skipper has been more precise in terms of when to tack,”Le Roy said.  

For one skipper, Nico d’Estais, in the only daggerboard boat in the field, the goal is to try and stay with the older foilers and beat one or two of them as well. Le Roy says the super-competitive Café Joyeux skipper will be at a disadvantage when the fleet is reaching, but in the phases between weather systems, he will have opportunities to make up any deficit. 

“So probably at one moment during the race he will lose some ground compared to the foilers – even the older foilers,”said Le Roy. “But in the transitions up north, especially if there are some tricky winds between two lows or two weather systems, he can catch up.”

Of his own Vendée Globe project, Le Roy says he already has some commercial partners, but he needs a main sponsor. “I know which boat I want,” he said. “The story is ready, the ambition is ready but, like everybody else, I still need some money.”

Ed Gorman