The wind conditions have fleshed out since the passage through the ridge of high pressure. It will now be important to get the timing of the tack right with the south-westerly wind shift so the competitors can power along in a straight line, due east!

The leading group will tack midway through the day in a small front to the north-east of low pressure system L4. The wind is set to shift round to the south-west behind the front at which point they’ll be able to link onto a direct route towards the Gallimard waypoint, where the ETA is overnight on 12 through into 13 July.
 
The positioning on exiting the front is strategic from there onwards. The more southerly a position the boats have when they come out, the more favourable the wind angle, but the greater the risk of passing through zones of light wind on Sunday. As such, it will be important to get the balance right. Given the uncertainty, we can see that the top trio has reduced the lateral separation to minimise the risk taking.
The weather system is moving eastwards. As a result, the pursuers can adopt a virtually direct course and cut through the front further to the east.

LIGHT WIND AT GALLIMARD

The wind is likely to be light for the front runners as they approach the Gallimard mark. We’ll have to wait for the zone of high pressure to reform on the evening of 13 July before we see the boats stealing towards the finish with a sustained northerly breeze. The passage of the Gallimard mark may well favour further bunching up of the fleet as a result.